With soaring electricity prices driven by international gas markets, combined with recovering economies, it would appear almost impossible to envisage an electricity market where there are no coal or gas plants operating. 

The coal plants, which are currently on the system, will be phased out by the end of 2024 under current plans. Whilst the gas plants, running at present, are working to ensure that lights stay on, as a result of renewable generation (wind) output being far below previous years’ figures.

In addition, the existing nuclear plants (not included in the fossil fuel categorisation) which again, will be required for baseload generation will be likely be closed from around 2030.

By the next decade, there will be no unabated coal plants (and likely no coal plant with CO2 capture and storage facility), one nuclear plant limping on (unless technical issues close it early) and old 1990’s-built gas plants, providing the only reliable baseload electricity for the UK.

By the 2030’s, the wheels of the Electric Vehicle revolution will really be rolling, as new petrol and diesel cars are banned from sale, combined with the cost of EV’s dropping and charging points becoming more common and accessible, and buyers no longer worry about range anxiety. Clearly this will drive an increase in demand for electricity.

In addition, there are potentially more electric heat pumps installed cross the country, as gas boilers are phased out.

There is therefore an understandable concern that electricity demand will be rising, just as dependable supply diminishes; this is exacerbated when the derated supply is evaluated. Fossil fuel generation runs all the time if the market price is attractive enough, but renewables only run if the wind blows or the sun shines- they cannot be forced to generate when the demand is at its highest i. e., cold, dark winter evenings.

There is a recognition that Offshore wind capacity must expand, and expand quickly, with plans afoot to quadruple the capacity from 10GW to 40GW, but that alone will not fill the gaps.  

Battery storage and new technologies are required. The Climate Change Committee are projecting 18GW of battery capacity by the mid 2030’s, but this could well need to be higher. In addition, longer duration technologies (8 hrs plus) necessitating financial and policy support will be essential.

More interconnectors could potentially ease the shortfalls, but as has been seen with recent severe and sudden price spikes, the UK does not operate in a bubble, and interconnectivity can increase UK market levels if the price differentials draw power across to Europe.

To ensure that we can use fossil fuel generators, yet still effectively emit zero carbon emissions, the nascent technology of CCUS (Carbon Capture and Storage) must really become a reality, at a cost that is not prohibitive, or is adequately subsidised through government schemes. Plans are in motion to transfer carbon from equipped fossil fuel generating plants, into caverns beneath the North Sea, but these small-scale testing projects would have to ramp up quickly, if they are to be a solution in barely more than a decade’s time.

In theory it could be achieved, but it is extraordinarily ambitious, and requires a following wind and lots of technological innovation, far greater efficiency in power consumption, and a complete change in consumer attitudes to energy usage. 

Market prices are one blunt way of getting all energy users to reduce their usage, but it penalises those who cannot change their consumption patterns, which at a domestic level, creates domestic fuel poverty, which ultimately will be paid for by society more widely through mutualised non-commodity costs.

Politically, this target will allow the government to announce that it is leading the world in decarbonising its energy sector, but for buyers, it creates huge price uncertainty in the longer term, which will undoubtedly increase price volatility, as the dependable fossil fuel plants are overwhelmed by intermittent renewable output.